← All instruments: the full set 1967
high 6,137,000 · low 171,000 · now 197,000 · 8 recessions shaded 2026 1962
high 15.06 · low 0.55 · now 4.75 · 8 recessions shaded 2026
R4 · ICSA × DGS10
Growth vs. yields
Yields should track growth. When yields rise as growth weakens, the debt is being repriced on something other than the economy.
BEHAVING z = -1.57 ROBUST as of 2026-07-25
within its normal range (above ~6% of its history)
The dysfunction statistic, full history
Above the dashed zero line is the economically wrong direction: the relationship failing to do its stabilizing job.
The two series it watches
ICSA
DGS10
How it is scored
- Correlation today (r)
- -0.3589
- z vs. its own history
- -1.57 on the Fisher-transformed (arctanh) correlation (effective N ≈ 117.8 independent windows, from 3,079 overlapping readings)
- Rule, pre-committed
- z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 4 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED.
- Confidence
- ROBUST: Initial claims serve as the weekly growth proxy; disclosed on Methodology.