DATED 2026-06-06 · RECOMPUTED ON EVERY DATA REFRESH As of 6 June 2026, two of four stabilizing relationships are behaving, and 28 of 35 levels read calm.
decoupled
Stocks vs. bondsTreasuries should hedge equities (negative correlation). When both sell off together, the classic portfolio stabilizer is failing. The statistic has held beyond the decoupled line (z 2.8, threshold 2) in the economically wrong direction for 10+ consecutive readings — persistence is what separates this from a flinch.
strained
Jobs vs. market reactionGood news should lift equities. When strong payrolls sell stocks off, the market is trading the Fed, not the economy. Today's statistic sits at z 1.29 — past the strained line (1) but short of decoupled (2, plus persistence).
extreme
consumer sentimentReads 49.8 — lower than ~100% of its full record — near the bottom of its record (z -2.57, past the extreme line of 2 against its full record). Low is the strain side for this tile.
extreme
equities-to-GDPReads 232.7 — higher than ~99% of its last 30 years — near the top of its record (z 2.67, past the extreme line of 2 against its last 30 years). High is the strain side for this tile.
extreme
the top-1% wealth shareReads 31.9 — higher than ~97% of its last decade (z 2.54, past the extreme line of 2 against its last decade). High is the strain side for this tile.
Not a forecast. Not a doom score. A present-tense reading of whether the
relationships that stabilize the system are still doing their job — a
census of states, never a single number.
01
Relationship Integrity
Are the offsets holding?
R1 · PAYEMS × SP500
Jobs vs. market reaction
Good news should lift equities. When strong payrolls sell stocks off, the market is trading the Fed, not the economy.
STRAINEDz = 1.29
toward the strained side — above ~84% of its history
Show the math
Statistic today
0.1928
z vs. its own history
1.29 (94 observations)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 2 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
PLAUSIBLE — Surprise is proxied against the series' own trend (revised data, not real-time consensus); disclosed on Methodology.
As of
2026-05-08
R2 · SP500 × DGS10
Stocks vs. bonds
Treasuries should hedge equities (negative correlation). When both sell off together, the classic portfolio stabilizer is failing.
DECOUPLEDz = 2.80
further toward dysfunction than ~100% of its own history
Show the math
Statistic today
0.7021
z vs. its own history
2.8 (2,436 observations)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 10 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
ROBUST — Plain rolling correlation of daily moves; the computation is mechanical.
As of
2026-06-04
R3 · CPI_YOY × T5YIFR
Inflation vs. expectations
Long-run expectations should stay near 2% no matter what realized CPI does. When they start moving WITH CPI, the anchor is dragging.
BEHAVINGz = 0.73
toward the strained side — above ~73% of its history
Show the math
Statistic today
0.2592
z vs. its own history
0.73 (256 observations)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 3 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
ROBUST — Rolling 24-month correlation of monthly changes in the 5y5y breakeven with changes in published CPI — co-movement measured directly. Reconstructed 2026-06-06; see the Methodology changelog.
As of
2026-05-01
R4 · ICSA × DGS10
Growth vs. yields
Yields should track growth. When yields rise as growth weakens, the debt is being repriced on something other than the economy.
BEHAVINGz = -1.26
within its normal range (above ~10% of its history)
Show the math
Statistic today
-0.2945
z vs. its own history
-1.26 (3,071 observations)
Rule, pre-committed
z < 1 BEHAVING · 1 ≤ z < 2 STRAINED · z ≥ 2 with the wrong economic sign, held 4 consecutive readings, DECOUPLED. Above the dashed zero line = the economically wrong direction.
Confidence
ROBUST — Initial claims serve as the weekly growth proxy; disclosed on Methodology.
As of
2026-05-30
02
The Cost of Existence
What life costs, and how it diverges from how it feels
THE COST-TO-EXIST RATIO (CLAIMED SHARE) · FLAGSHIPCOMPONENTS ROBUST · ASSEMBLY PLAUSIBLE
The share of each income already spoken for before a single free
choice — the same arithmetic at three incomes, recomputed live as you
change the assumptions below. The lower household carries the larger
share because health premiums, food, fuel, and the shelter floor are
flat dollars, and flat dollars are regressive. Select a bracket to see
its breakdown.
Breakdown — median household, $83,730: $56,811
claimed (67.9%)
Taxes
$12,093
ROBUST
Debt service
$9,481
PLAUSIBLE
Shelter
$11,700
ROBUST
Food (thrifty, 2+0)
$7,484
ROBUST
Fuel (live, $4.305/gal)
$2,932
PLAUSIBLE
Health premiums
$6,850
ROBUST
Retirement gap
$6,271
CONTESTED
Out-of-pocket health
—
DISABLED — NO VERIFIED MEDIAN
Show the math
Formula
ClaimedShare = (Taxes + Obligations + Shelter + Food + Fuel + Health + RetirementGap) / Income
Spine
Built on the Fed's own framework: the Debt Service Ratio (11.323096% of disposable income, as of 2025-10-01)
carries debt service; shelter enters separately at HUD Fair
Market Rent so nothing double-counts. The Fed's broader
Financial Obligations Ratio read 14.2% when it was discontinued (2023-07-01)
— shown as anchor.
Conservative by construction
State/local taxes omitted; tax credits omitted; out-of-pocket
health disabled pending a verified median. Where honesty is
ambiguous, the share reads LOW.
Two wage series, shown separately and never spliced: all-employees AHE begins 2006-03; production-and-nonsupervisory AHE carries the history to 1964. They differ in level and composition.
Cousin on screen
S2, real wage growth (the flow, ROBUST), in the cousins row
below.
THE SENTIMENT GAP (THE VIBES GAP) · 5.3PLAUSIBLE / CONTESTED — SPEC PUBLISHED IN FULL
-37.9
Michigan sentiment reads 49.8; unemployment, inflation, and real wage growth alone predict 87.7. The difference is how much worse it feels than the fundamentals
in the model say it should — and the model deliberately omits the
privatized life taxes measured above.
Show the math
Specification
OLS: sentiment ~ const + unemployment + cpi_yoy + real_wage_growth, monthly, full available joint sample; Newey-West (HAC, 12 lags) standard errors
Sample
1965-02-01 to 2026-04-01 (631
months)
R²
0.2769 — published, not hidden; a low R²
means the fundamentals never explained the mood fully, which is itself
the finding
lower than ~98% of its last decade — near the bottom of its record — trending series sit near their own extreme most days; the state reads distance from typical, not rank
DYNAMISM — THE POSITIVES, AS ACTIVE SIGNALS: NEW BUSINESSES,
PRODUCTIVITY, PARTICIPATION, SHOVELS IN THE GROUND. THESE READ
STRAINED ONLY WHEN THE DYNAMISM DIES.
D1 · NEW BUSINESSES BEING BORN — THE ONES LIKELY TO HIRE
The argument — conditional, and clearly labeled as such
17.2¢
of every federal revenue dollar already goes to interest on the
public debt — the trailing twelve months through 2026-04-30,
straight from the
Treasury's monthly statements
. This is the ratio's spine, read in the present tense. What
happens to it if a single shock moves unemployment, inflation,
and rates together is the model's question, not this board's.
A mathematical warning.
Debt service over available revenue, under any combination of
unemployment, inflation, and rates. The cascade fires only if a
coupling shock overrides the offsetting mechanisms — that
conditionality is the whole point, and it lives on its own site.
Not a forecast. Not a doom score. A present-tense reading of whether
the relationships that stabilize the system — jobs and markets,
stocks and bonds, inflation and expectations — are still doing their
job.
— THE DISCIPLINE
Every number carries its primary source, its timestamp, and a
reliability score. Every formula is one click away. On most days,
most of this board should read calm — and it is built to say so.
05
Field Notes
Interpretation — dated, signed, never silently edited
THE WIRE — MACHINE-WRITTEN RECORD OF WHAT MOVED. NO JUDGMENT; A PURE
FUNCTION OF CONSECUTIVE BOARD STATES.
2026-06-06The wire opens. 39 readings under watch.
FIELD NOTES — INTERPRETATION. HUMAN, SIGNED, APPEND-ONLY.
— Interpretation, not data
No entries yet. When a relationship visibly moves, a dated note
will explain what happened and which tiles it touched. Corrections
arrive as new entries, never edits.