Where it sits: higher than ~68% of its full record.
The full history
1971
high 3.84 · low -2.00 · now 0.12 · 7 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
the build-up of system leverage froth misses
Where it sits
higher than ~68% of its full record: at the 68th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window
0.12 (strain side: up). 2,899 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: The Chicago Fed's leverage component: how much borrowed money stands under asset prices. The altitude tiles read the climb; this reads what is propping it.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
2.46
▲ EXTREME
Q4-2018 selloff
0.27
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
0.05
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
0.88
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
The Ledge: How high is the market, and what is under it?