← All instruments: the full set 2003
high 2.90 · low 0.43 · now 2.31 · 2 recessions shaded 2026
F8 · EXPECTATIONS ANCHORING
5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate
2.31
CALM ROBUST z 0.18 DRS 95 daily as of 2026-08-03
Where it sits: near the middle of its full record.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- expectations anchoring
- Where it sits
- near the middle of its full record: at the 53th percentile of its full record.
- z vs. its window
- 0.18 (strain side: both). 5,900 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 2.31 | · CALM |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 1.98 | · CALM |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | 1.74 | ◆ WATCH |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 1.23 | ▲ EXTREME |
Questions it helps answer
- Prices : Are prices behaving, and believed?