← All instruments: the full set 1962
high 15.06 · low 0.55 · now 4.75 · 8 recessions shaded 2026
F4 · BENCHMARK RATE
10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield
4.75
CALM ROBUST z -0.36 DRS 95 daily as of 2026-07-31
Where it sits: near the middle of its full record.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- benchmark rate
- Where it sits
- near the middle of its full record: at the 43th percentile of its full record.
- z vs. its window
- -0.36 (strain side: up). 16,130 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 3.47 | · CALM |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 2.74 | · CALM |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | 1.47 | · CALM |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 0.76 | · CALM |
Questions it helps answer
- The Debt : Can the debt be carried, and who is carrying it?