F16 · THE CURVE THE FED'S RECESSION RESEARCH PREFERS

Term spread, 10-year minus 3-month Treasury

0.79

CALM ROBUST z 0.40 DRS 95 daily as of 2026-08-03

Where it sits: higher than ~61% of its last decade.

The full history

1982 high 3.91 · low -1.88 · now 0.79 · 5 recessions shaded 2026

What it measures: the curve the Fed's recession research prefers
Where it sits: higher than ~61% of its last decade: at the 61th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window: 0.40 (strain side: down). 2,496 observations in the window.
State rule: z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence: ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS): DRS 95: Inversion (negative) is the strain side. Complements the 2s10s (F7); the 10y–3m is the spread NY Fed recession models use.

FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.