Where it sits: lower than ~86% of its full record.
The full history
1986
high 6.06 · low 1.27 · now 1.63 · 4 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
investment-grade credit stress
Where it sits
lower than ~86% of its full record: at the 14th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window
-0.92 (strain side: up). 10,145 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Complements F1: the high-yield spread (truncated to ~3 years by ICE licensing) reads speculative credit; this reads investment grade with four decades of memory.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
3.66
▲ EXTREME
Q4-2018 selloff
2.35
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
2.26
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
4.31
▲ EXTREME
Questions it helps answer
The Ledge: How high is the market, and what is under it?