Where it sits: higher than ~82% of its full record.
The full history
2006
high 130.04 · low 85.60 · now 119.70 · 2 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
foreign appetite for US assets
Where it sits
higher than ~82% of its full record: at the 82th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window
1.08 (strain side: both). 5,159 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Two-sided by declaration: a falling dollar alongside falling long-end demand is the loss-of-confidence signature; a spiking dollar signals global stress and flight to quality. The partner tile to auction demand (F10).
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
91.76
· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff
116.22
◆ WATCH
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
117.88
◆ WATCH
COVID crash, Mar 2020
126.13
▲ EXTREME
Questions it helps answer
The Debt: Can the debt be carried, and who is carrying it?