Where it sits: lower than ~73% of its last decade.
The full history
1960
high 48.75 · low -12.97 · now 2.24 · 9 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
big-ticket consumer demand
Where it sits
lower than ~73% of its last decade: at the 27th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
-0.43 (strain side: down). 118 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Computed: 3-month moving average of the year-over-year change in real PCE durable goods (DDURRA3M086SBEA, BEA chain-type quantity index, 2017=100), monthly since 1959: the smoothing tames a famously volatile (auto-driven) series without shifting the turn more than a month. The behavioral complement to consumer sentiment (C6): sentiment leads, big-ticket spending confirms or denies the follow-through. Real durable demand should grow modestly with income (S20) and household formation; a sharp YoY decline means consumers are DEFERRING major purchases: the cold tail is the strain side. The hot tail is noted, not flagged as structural stress. Three disclosures travel with the line: (1) autos are ~40% of durable-goods PCE and dominate the aggregate; weakness in appliances, furniture, or electronics can be invisible here; (2) this uses the REAL chain-type quantity index directly, so no deflator is chosen and 'nominal vs real' cannot mislead: it moves only when BEA revises the quantity index; (3) durable-goods ORDERS (DGORDER) lead consumption by 1–3 months but measure manufacturers' new orders (aircraft & capital goods included), a different concept, deliberately NOT used here as a stand-in for consumption. Scored against its trailing decade. BEA-produced.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
-6.46
▲ EXTREME
Q4-2018 selloff
2.80
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
3.87
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
2.04
◆ WATCH
Questions it helps answer
The Mood: How does it feel out there, and does the feeling match?