Where it sits: higher than ~67% of its last decade.
The full history
1959
high 2,494 · low 490.00 · now 1,427 · 9 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
shovels in the ground
Where it sits
higher than ~67% of its last decade: at the 67th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
0.31 (strain side: down). 118 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Decade-relative; not population-scaled (a declared simplification: starts per household is a future refinement). The supply-side answer to the shelter line in section 02.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
820.00
▲ EXTREME
Q4-2018 selloff
1,095
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
1,375
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
1,266
· CALM
Questions it helps answer
The Household: Can households carry their own ledger?