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C43 · THE GOODS TRADE GAP

Goods trade balance (BOP basis)

-73,261
CALM ROBUST z -0.77 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-06-01

Where it sits: lower than ~82% of its last decade.

The full history

1992 high -831.00 · low -132,983 · now -73,261 · 3 recessions shaded 2026

How it is read

What it measures
the goods trade gap
Where it sits
lower than ~82% of its last decade: at the 18th percentile of its last decade.
z vs. its window
-0.77 (strain side: down). 118 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Balance on goods, balance-of-payments basis, millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted (negative = deficit). A swinging monthly series driven by energy shipments and capital-goods imports; the direction of travel is the story, not any single month's level. Census/BEA-produced.

Where it comes from

FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.

What it read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008 -58,706 ◆ WATCH
Q4-2018 selloff -53,134 ▲ EXTREME
Curve inversion, Aug 2019 -46,610 ◆ WATCH
COVID crash, Mar 2020 -41,407 · CALM