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C41 · THE SUPPLY-SHOCK INPUT BEHIND ENERGY CPI

West Texas Intermediate crude oil price

84.25
STALE ROBUST DRS 95 daily as of 2026-07-27

This tile is stale: the value shown is the last one the source published, never a fabricated current number.

The full history

1986 high 135.98 · low 11.03 · now 84.25 · 4 recessions shaded 2026

How it is read

What it measures
the supply-shock input behind energy CPI
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: SCORED FAST-TELL since 2026-06-21 (was CONTEXT). Oil is the supply-shock INPUT; energy CPI (C35) is its output: rising oil precedes rising energy CPI by ~1–2 months, and the gap between them measures how much pass-through remains (R10). Promoted to a scored level on ABSOLUTE bands (90 / 110 $/bbl, rising is strain) so a shock shows the day it hits the tape rather than a quarter later through CPI; the z and percentile are still shown for context but do not gate the state. WTI is the US benchmark; Brent (DCOILBRENTEU) is the global benchmark and more relevant to shocks originating outside North America (disclosed); WTI carries US production sensitivity. Only a price SPIKE is scored as strain (stress up): cheap oil is household relief, not a recession tell, which the labor tiles carry. Daily since 1986; framed over 20 years. EIA via FRED. See the methodology changelog.

Where it comes from

FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.

What it read at past stress points

Lehman, Sep 2008 95.52 ◆ WATCH
Q4-2018 selloff 45.38 · CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019 55.76 · CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020 23.33 · CALM

Questions it helps answer