PCE inflation, headline, year over year (Fed's target measure)
3.70
STALEROBUSTDRS 95monthlyas of 2026-07-01
This tile is stale: the value shown is the last
one the source published, never a fabricated current number.
The full history
1960
high 11.60 · low -1.47 · now 3.70 · 9 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
the Fed's official target gauge
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Computed: 100 × (PCEPI(t) / PCEPI(t−12m) − 1). The Federal Reserve's official target measure: the 2% target applies to HEADLINE PCE; when PCE runs persistently above 2% the Fed is off-mandate. Differs from CPI (C2) in weights (less shelter, more healthcare), scope (PCE includes third-party purchases like employer health insurance) and formula (chain-weight vs CPI's Laspeyres), and typically runs ~0.3–0.5pp BELOW CPI, the methodological wedge that R11 scores. Strain is declared BOTH tails to match the symmetric engine and C2/C3 (the addendum frames it one-sided as 'above target'): persistent overshoot and deflation are both strain, and the 2% line is additive display context, not the state gate. Scored against the full record (1960+). The core PCE sibling is C3. BEA-produced.
Where it comes from
DERIVED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.