Where it sits: lower than ~88% of its full record.
The full history
2000
high 8.60 · low 0.90 · now 1.10 · 3 recessions shaded 2026
How it is read
What it measures
the low-fire half of the freeze
Where it sits
lower than ~88% of its full record: at the 12th percentile of its full record.
z vs. its window
-0.45 (strain side: up). 307 observations in the window.
State rule
z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
Confidence
ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
Reliability (DRS)
DRS 95: Rising involuntary separations are the direct shedding tell; low layoffs beside low hires is the freeze. BLS-produced; integrity-events factor applies.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
Lehman, Sep 2008
1.50
· CALM
Q4-2018 selloff
1.20
· CALM
Curve inversion, Aug 2019
1.20
· CALM
COVID crash, Mar 2020
8.60
▲ EXTREME
Questions it helps answer
The Freeze: What is the labor market’s COMPOSITION saying?