← All instruments: the full set 2000
high 6.10 · low 2.80 · now 3.40 · 3 recessions shaded 2026
C19 · THE LOW-HIRE HALF OF THE FREEZE
Hires rate (JOLTS)
3.40
CALM ROBUST z -0.72 DRS 95 monthly as of 2026-06-01
Where it sits: lower than ~78% of its full record.
The full history
How it is read
- What it measures
- the low-hire half of the freeze
- Where it sits
- lower than ~78% of its full record: at the 22th percentile of its full record.
- z vs. its window
- -0.72 (strain side: down). 307 observations in the window.
- State rule
- z < 1 CALM · 1 ≤ z < 2 WATCH · z ≥ 2 EXTREME, measured only toward the declared strain side.
- Confidence
- ROBUST : a primary official series, mechanically reported.
- Reliability (DRS)
- DRS 95: Completes the JOLTS churn triplet with quits (C10) and layoffs (C20). Low hires beside low layoffs is a frozen market. BLS-produced; integrity-events factor applies.
Where it comes from
FRED ↗ Every number on this site is reproducible from this primary source.
What it read at past stress points
| Lehman, Sep 2008 | 3.30 | ▲ EXTREME |
|---|---|---|
| Q4-2018 selloff | 3.90 | · CALM |
| Curve inversion, Aug 2019 | 3.90 | · CALM |
| COVID crash, Mar 2020 | 3.40 | · CALM |
Questions it helps answer
- The Freeze : What is the labor market’s COMPOSITION saying?